Public Health and the Global Economy
The Economic Impact of COVID-19 in the world.
The strategies for faster recovery of post-COVID-19. The bridge from responding to the crisis to preparing to thrive in a new normal.
Link Associate Group compiled the latest insights from our experts on the far-reaching impact of coronavirus. Stay informed on public health implications, business continuity, supply chain, and other developments in real-time as our experts continue to weigh in on COVID-19 news.
What impacts has the world seen so far as a result of the pandemic?
The world’s economy has already contracted sharply as a result of the government-imposed restrictions to slow the virus’s spread. In other words, we’re already in a severe recession. The only hard data we have so far is claims for benefit credit. That’s essentially people losing their jobs, and the number of claims is between five and seven times the normal rate. Clearly, this is the biggest and the sharpest shock we’ve ever seen in this world.
The most affected sectors are transport, hotels and restaurants, non-food retail, and some manufacturing. We estimate that at least 12% to 15% of the workforce and the economy are shut down. Financial services, consultancy, legal services, accountancy, and so on are much less affected.
Some sectors will see an increase in demand, such as healthcare, but also online retail and communications. There were earlier estimates of a fall in GDP of 5% or so in the second half of 2020. That looks hugely optimistic at this point.
Will everything go back to normal?
That’s a difficult question. To what extent will we shift to online services for delivering goods, such as restaurant food and supermarket food as well entertainment
To what extent will we move toward higher rates of working from home?
That has obvious implications for broadband services, streaming services, and tools like Zoom. On the flip side, it has implications for transport, commercial property providers, office space providers, and so on. We don’t know the extent to which these temporary restrictions may become permanent shifts in how we live, work, and consume.
We want to ensure our ability to produce stuff is not permanently damaged after this crisis. The policy’s objective is to stop that by freezing the economy temporarily as much as possible. There’s a package of direct support to businesses through rate relief, special payments, and loan guarantees, all designed to reduce the probability that businesses go bust. The government is offering financial incentives to stop businesses from firing workers, saying it will cover the salaries of people, there are also increases in welfare payments.
The main impact of having extended closures is not necessarily that the fall in GDP gets that much worse; it means the recovery is delayed. The longer it goes on, the higher the probability there’s permanent damage to the economy. The optimistic scenario is that it falls by 10% this quarter and we recover almost all that the quarter after that. Nine months after that, we’re back on pretty much the same path we would have been on if nothing had happened. The pessimistic scenario is that it falls 10%, but because the restrictions are prolonged, it doesn’t recover in the two quarters after that. Two years later, the recovery is much shallower – we’ve lost perhaps 10% of output permanently.
Once the pandemic is behind us, what will be economically different in this new normal?
The big unanswered question is how this affects global geopolitics and international economic relations. Does it further deepen what we’ve seen in the last few years, which was a slowdown in world trade and – parallel to that – increasing geopolitical and trade trend tensions? It’s not clear that this crisis will lead to any positive feedback for international cooperation. None of that is good for the future progress of world trade or global international economic relations more generally.
- Assessing the Economic Impact of COVID-19 in the world
- Small Business Concerns around COVID-19 Impact
- Large Cooperate Business Continuity Planning Amid COVID-19
- Opportunity for the Consumer Health Industry
- The Impact of COVID-19 on the Aviation, Cruise, Tourism &, Hospitality Industries
- The Pandemic-Pummelled Restaurant Industry
- Impact of COVID-19 on the Real Estate Properties.
- How Are Banking and Payments Changing as a Result the
We have analyzed that Covid-19 has generated significant instability and high volatility, particularly in global financial and capital markets. While the full impact is yet to be determined, the uncertainty from Covid-19 will remain for the foreseeable future. All the industries associated with the financial industry have no choice but to remain hyper-vigilant and must rewrite their pandemic business continuity playbooks as circumstances with Covid -19 evolve. This on-going crisis is unique in its combination of challenges making mitigation during and beyond pandemic even more complex.
We at Link Associates Group provide deep knowledge combined with a pandemic support mechanism to help the client manage their business sustainability and continuity challenges during coronavirus, including:
1- Liquidity impact of Covid 19 disruption between finance and operations.
2- Protecting existing hard and soft credit
3- Support in developing sustainable recovery plans.
4- Workforce strategies for post-pandemic recovery
5- The bridge responding to the crisis to preparing to thrive in a new normal.
Public Health and the Global Economy
The Economic Impact of COVID-19 in the world.
The strategies for faster recovery of post-COVID-19. The bridge from responding to the crisis to preparing to thrive in a new normal.
Link Associate Group compiled the latest insights from our experts on the far-reaching impact of coronavirus. Stay informed on public health implications, business continuity, supply chain, and other developments in real-time as our experts continue to weigh in on COVID-19 news.
What impacts has the world seen so far as a result of the pandemic?
The world’s economy has already contracted sharply as a result of the government-imposed restrictions to slow the virus’s spread. In other words, we’re already in a severe recession. The only hard data we have so far is claims for benefit credit. That’s essentially people losing their jobs, and the number of claims is between five and seven times the normal rate. Clearly, this is the biggest and the sharpest shock we’ve ever seen in this world.
The most affected sectors are transport, hotels and restaurants, non-food retail, and some manufacturing. We estimate that at least 12% to 15% of the workforce and the economy are shut down. Financial services, consultancy, legal services, accountancy, and so on are much less affected.
Some sectors will see an increase in demand, such as healthcare, but also online retail and communications. There were earlier estimates of a fall in GDP of 5% or so in the second half of 2020. That looks hugely optimistic at this point.
Will everything go back to normal?
That’s a difficult question. To what extent will we shift to online services for delivering goods, such as restaurant food and supermarket food as well entertainment
To what extent will we move toward higher rates of working from home?
That has obvious implications for broadband services, streaming services, and tools like Zoom. On the flip side, it has implications for transport, commercial property providers, office space providers, and so on. We don’t know the extent to which these temporary restrictions may become permanent shifts in how we live, work, and consume.
We want to ensure our ability to produce stuff is not permanently damaged after this crisis. The policy’s objective is to stop that by freezing the economy temporarily as much as possible. There’s a package of direct support to businesses through rate relief, special payments, and loan guarantees, all designed to reduce the probability that businesses go bust. The government is offering financial incentives to stop businesses from firing workers, saying it will cover the salaries of people, there are also increases in welfare payments.
The main impact of having extended closures is not necessarily that the fall in GDP gets that much worse; it means the recovery is delayed. The longer it goes on, the higher the probability there’s permanent damage to the economy. The optimistic scenario is that it falls by 10% this quarter and we recover almost all that the quarter after that. Nine months after that, we’re back on pretty much the same path we would have been on if nothing had happened. The pessimistic scenario is that it falls 10%, but because the restrictions are prolonged, it doesn’t recover in the two quarters after that. Two years later, the recovery is much shallower – we’ve lost perhaps 10% of output permanently.
Once the pandemic is behind us, what will be economically different in this new normal?
The big unanswered question is how this affects global geopolitics and international economic relations. Does it further deepen what we’ve seen in the last few years, which was a slowdown in world trade and – parallel to that – increasing geopolitical and trade trend tensions? It’s not clear that this crisis will lead to any positive feedback for international cooperation. None of that is good for the future progress of world trade or global international economic relations more generally.
- Assessing the Economic Impact of COVID-19 in the world
- Small Business Concerns around COVID-19 Impact
- Large Cooperate Business Continuity Planning Amid COVID-19
- Opportunity for the Consumer Health Industry
- The Impact of COVID-19 on the Aviation, Cruise, Tourism &, Hospitality Industries
- The Pandemic-Pummelled Restaurant Industry
- Impact of COVID-19 on the Real Estate Properties.
- How Are Banking and Payments Changing as a Result the
We have analyzed that Covid-19 has generated significant instability and high volatility, particularly in global financial and capital markets. While the full impact is yet to be determined, the uncertainty from Covid-19 will remain for the foreseeable future. All the industries associated with the financial industry have no choice but to remain hyper-vigilant and must rewrite their pandemic business continuity playbooks as circumstances with Covid -19 evolve. This on-going crisis is unique in its combination of challenges making mitigation during and beyond pandemic even more complex.
We at Link Associates Group provide deep knowledge combined with a pandemic support mechanism to help the client manage their business sustainability and continuity challenges during coronavirus, including:
1- Liquidity impact of Covid 19 disruption between finance and operations.
2- Protecting existing hard and soft credit
3- Support in developing sustainable recovery plans.
4- Workforce strategies for post-pandemic recovery
5- The bridge responding to the crisis to preparing to thrive in a new normal.
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